Odds

Odds and the 10% cap

Your chance of winning moves until the bag locks. The 10% rule caps how much draw weight one wallet can hold versus the live ticket bag. It does not freeze your win percent at the moment you buy.

Odds move with the bag

Display odds for a wallet are roughly your tickets divided by tickets out in the current window, then capped. As other wallets buy or sell, the bag changes, so your percent changes even if you do nothing.

share = tickets / ticketsOut
odds  = min(ODDS_CAP, share)   # ODDS_CAP defaults to 10%

What the 10% cap actually does

• Default ODDS_CAP_BPS=1000 means a 10% ceiling on draw weight share of the bag.
• At draw time, each wallet's weight is min(tickets, floor(ticketsOut * ODDS_CAP_BPS / 10000)). Excess tickets above that weight are simply not counted.
• Hitting ~10% early is not a locked win chance for the rest of the window. If the bag grows, your capped share is still measured against the bag at lock.
• Spending past the cap still buys $BELL. It does not buy more draw weight for that window.

Ladder and lookups

The site ladder and Telegram /ladder / /odds commands reuse the same odds math as the API. Paste an address on the site to read a position for the open window.

Next: how fees fund the pot in Fees and the Bell Pot (v1).